Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

I’ve been running the numbers on the 2019–20 Wuhan coronavirus outbreak caused by the Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).

Things aren’t looking good.

Let’s compare it to the H1N1 (Swine Flu) pandemic of 2009, which I had. Ten days of OMG followed by three weeks of recovery before I felt normal again.

The Swine Flu infected between 11% and 21% of the 6.85 billion population of 2009, resulting in roughly 365,000 deaths, a rate of 0.03% for those infected (1 in 3,300).

The death rate for the Coronavirus has, to date, been much higher, at 2.06% for those infected (1 in 48).

Admittedly, those who have died have largely been the poor without access to decent medical care. However, if you extend the numbers and the rate holds, we’re looking at upwards of 32 million who could die worldwide. That’s about a third of those who’ve died from HIV AIDS and about 10% of the Black Plague (bubonic) deaths.

I predict, however, with proper medical care, the actual numbers will be much lower, between 1 million and 10 million. And that’s even if it’s allowed to spread far and wide.

On the other hand, disease has always been a part of the natural environment here on Earth. Just 100 years ago, the Spanish Flu killed 500 million people from 1918 through 1920. Many people had a natural immunity, and those who survived probably had either partial immunity or simply healthy immune systems.

Is it heinous or Machiavellian to say, “Let nature run it’s course – those who survive it will be better for for it?”

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