US Covid-19 Update – March 2021

Latest COVID-19 Statistics and Analyses: It’s been three months since I crunched the numbers. Let’s see how things have changed:

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1. Covid-19 remains 29.6 times more deadly than the flu around the world, and 26.6 times more deadly than the flu here in the US. So, Covid-19 is still definitely NOT the flu. Besides, it’s a coronavirus, not an influenza virus.

2. Countries with either very strict mandatory mask wear, strict quarantine procedures, or both, such as Norway, Iceland, New Zealand and Japan, have a FAR lower percentage of their populations being infected and subsequent deaths.

Takeaway 1: Masks WORK, and they work extremely well.

Takeaway 2: Nationwide quarantines WORK, and they work extremely well. I’m not talking about forcing healthy people to stay home. That’s not a quarantine. That’s just stupid. No, seriously: The Center for Global Development affirms lockdowns cause far more harm than good. You’re not listening! Literally thousands of infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and have recommended an approach called Focused Protection. Yes, masks work. Shutdowns, however, DO NOT.

Takeaway 3: Nations that successfully kept their infection rates low (more than an order of magnitude lower than the US) never had to resorted to shutdowns. As a result, their economies are doing just fine.

Takeaway 4: Nations whose general populace were stupid (rejecting masks, gathering without masks) are suffering the most, both economically as well as biologically (high number of deaths as a percent of their populations).

3. The US, Italy and the UK have suffered the highest rates of deaths as a percent of our populations, roughly 0.17%. I find that striking, given the fact that all three countries jumped on shutdowns as the solution. Clearly, SHUTDOWNS DO NOT WORK.

The mortality rates of these three countries are as follows: US: 2.4%, IT: 3.8%, UK: 3.5%. Mortality rate is properly defined as the number of deaths divided by the total number of resolved cases, which itself is defined as the number of cases ending in death plus the number of cases where patients recovered.

4. At least 4 times as many people have been exposed to the point of becoming infected and contagious than are identified as an actual case. Their symptoms are mild to non-existent. While this is bad with respect to trying to contain the virus, the silver lining is that a significantly greater percentage of the population is now immune, thereby contributing to the necessary herd immunity ratio.

5. Without the vaccination, the US will achieve herd immunity no sooner than 2.5 years from now, in the Fall of 2023. With the vaccination, it appears that critical level will be reached by the Fall of this year, 2021.

6. Although France had roughly the same number of infections as a percentage of their population as Brazil, Italy, the UK, Poland, Sweden and Switzerland, their death rates were sky high, with 24.9% of all cases dying. That’s 10 x higher than here in the U.S. Did they not have health care? Did they not available themselves of health care? Did most French patients and/or their loved ones say, “c’est la vie” and do nothing? Italy is the next highest hit, at 3.8%. That’s one in 26 people who contracted Covid-19 in Italy who died, whereas in France, it was 1 in 4. France isn’t merely in the lead, it’s nearly 7 times further ahead of all other countries in terms of mortality rate than all other countries. What gives??? I find it quite strange that the vast majority of anti-maskers in the US carry roughly the same attitude as the French.

7. At 26.6 times more deadly than the seasonal flu, Covid-19 is on par with the early 20th Century’s Spanish Flu epidemic, which was 25.8 times more deathly than the seasonal flu. The difference is that all they had back then were cloth masks, and many people didn’t wear them.

8. A surgical mask is 2.5 times as effective as a cloth mask, and K/N95 masks are 10 times more effective than cloth masks.

9. Although the US will largely the done with Covid-19 this year, i will linger throughout many areas of the world for another decade, and that’s a huge problem. The longer it lingers, the more likely it is to evolve into a strain different enough from the current crop that current vaccines will no longer work on it.

10. We have GOT to eradicate this scourge from the Earth. This is a thousand times more important to human civilization both in the immediate and long-term future than “climate change.”

11. Fortunately, the current crop of vaccines really are both safe and effective, with a greater than 95% rate of effectiveness and a total adverse reaction rate that’s 4,850 times less than Covid-19 itself.

Conclusion

While the light is indeed shining at the end of the tunnel, this is NOT the time let your guard down, and neither is this Spring or Summer. Covid-19 remains remains a killer at 26.6 times more deadly than the seasonal flu, and most of those who contract it will experience at least some permanent damage. Keep wearing your masks, maintain 6′ of separation, continue hand-washing, and for God’s sake, stop congregating with others in maskless environments. That’s WHY the rate of Covid-19 infection in the US is higher than all other countries.