Origin of the Term “Bomb Cyclone”

The term “bomb cyclone” is not listed in AFH 11-203V1 or V2, “Weather for Aircrews,” a three-week course taught to all military aviators in the United States Air Force.  The volumes comprise 234 and 85 pages, for a total of 319 pages of detailed meteorology.  It includes tons of references to cyclone, cyclones, and cyclonic activity, but not a word about “bomb cyclone” or “cyclone bomb,” “cyclonic bomb,” “bombogenesis,” or other variations.
So I checked an exhaustive online weather glossary. Zero. Zip. Nada.
And then I found the origin: “John Gyakum, along with the revered late Massachusetts Institute of Technology meteorologist Fred Sanders, first coined the term in a paper they published in 1980. They used the phrase to describe powerful cyclones that get their energy from rapid drops in pressure caused by hot and cold temperatures colliding.”
Here’s the link to the American Meteorological Society’s Abstract for the paper, and here’s the link to the paper itself.  And here’s the citation:
Gyakum, J. R. and Sanders, F.  (1980).  Synoptic-dynamic climatology of the “Bomb.”  Department of Meteorology, Massachusetts Institution of Technology.  Retrieved from:  http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493%281980%29108%3C1589%3ASDCOT%3E2.0.CO%3B2
This term, however, while coined by two researchers from MIT, was never widely adopted in the annals of mainstream meteorology.  Furthermore, Gyakum stopped using it shortly after 9/11 for obvious reasons.  Sanders passed away in 2006.

As of January 4, 2018, the term “bomb cyclone” as swept through the corridors of mudstream media like wildfire, even though it was never

January 2018 Hurricane
(click to enlarge)

officially adopted as a weather term.  Technically, it’s still just a cyclone (tropical depression), although it appears as if NOAA is caiming it has developed hurricane-force winds near its center.

Even so, tons of publications ranging from Time to Forbes, Popular Science, Fortune, and more have all put out articles about its origins. Fortune gets it right: “Technically, the term bomb cyclone comes from the scientific term “bombogenesis,” which is a storm that drops 24 millibars of pressure over 24 hours.”  Well, it sort of gets it right, as the term “bombogenesis” never appeared in the original paper.

There’s a difference between normal cyclonic development and a bomb, best explained by this quote from NBC News’ Science:  “Hurricane Sandy was a monster, but not a bomb since it was forecast with extraordinary accuracy a week ahead. A meteorological bomb, on the other hand, develops at a frightening pace — with the atmospheric pressure dropping a millibar or more per hour for at least 24 hours.” – NBC News

The problem with this is that the term was never used by mainstream meteorologists and just randomly popped up even though it’s surviving creator said he’s not using it any more.

Thus, I think some idiot from mudstream media re-coined it without knowing its origin, and only after it gained traction did the many outlets of mudstream media try to legitimize it by tying it back to an obscure research paper from 1980.  I found a few references to various forms of it used by local meteorologists over the years, dating back to 2007.

Regardless, the threat is real.  Despite its appearance in January, well past the end of hurricane season, it still has all the earmarks of a hurricane, including high winds and massive precipitation.  In fact, due to the extreme cold, instead of falling as many inches of rain, that precipitation will fall as many feet of snow.

As of 4:00 AM on January 4, 2018, it’s center was abeam North Carolina, but by 3:00 PM, it had moved rapidly north, so that it’s currently abeam Nantucket.  Furthermore, although it is rapidly pulling polar air from Canada, sweeping it through the Eastern Seaboard,  it appears to be far enough out to sea that it’s not “bombing” the area with snow.  Nantucket is currently reporting 13 inches of snow, with another 3 inches per hour for several hours.  Three feet of snow would be a lot, but it’s not uncommon in that area, and it’s certainly not ten feet.

Why FEMA is a Failure

Why FEMA is a failure:
Here’s what worries me most: “Pelosi said, adding that she is worried about Trump’s proposed cuts to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in his fiscal year 2018 federal budget. “You can’t do that,” Pelosi said, adding that the issue will be on the table when Congress reconvenes in just a few days.”
With a $13.9 billion budget, FEMA is one of the most overpaid, under-capable organizations on the planet. People need WATER about everything else, yet FEMA utterly failed the people of New Orleans.
The Army and Army National Guard was primed and ready to begin delivering bottled water, trucked in ahead of the storm by Walmart, via Chinook helicopter before the winds died down.
They were told, “No. Stand down. Let FEMA handle it.”
In less than 3 days, Air Force personnel had landed at Moissant (New Orleans’ International Airport) and begun clearing the runways for subsequent deliveries of water, food, and medical supplies, as well as any number of volunteers. The runway was cleared by the 4th day.
They were told, “No. Stand down. Let FEMA handle it.”
On the 5th day after all winds had subsided, FEMA finally their crap together and begin delivering water in chincy civilian helicopters that couldn’t haul but about 800 lbs. A CH-47D Chinook hauls about 25,000 lbs. A C-130 can haul 45,000 lbs. A C-17 can haul 170,900 lbs. That’s 20,000 gallons of water, including dunnage and bottling. That’s enough for 5,000 people for 5 days.
The U.S. military was absolutely chomping at the bit to get water to the people. Instead we were watching them DIE of dehydration.
But no. They were told, “No. Stand down. Let FEMA handle it.”
Although President Trump recently appointed Brock Long, a well-qualified and experienced leader, he is grossly saddled and overburdened by laws created by Congress who think they know how to and need to legislate every contingency FEMA might encounter, and how he should respond.
The days of the old Civil Defense system were FAR more capable of responding to natural disasters. In fact, the “Cajun and Texan Navies” did PRECISELY what the old Civil Defense system was all about: Protecting and rescuing the people, from the lowest level on up. In 1954, the United States held its first nation-wide civil defense drill, where over 12 million Americans “died” in a mock nuclear attack.
It was a huge success.
The U.S. Federal Civil Defense Administration was organized by Harry Truman on December 1, 1950 through Executive Order 10186, and became an official government agency via the Federal Civil Defense Act of 1950 on 12 January 1951. It’s gone through some changes, eventually arriving at FEMA.
The major problem with FEMA is that the mindset is mostly top-down. Yes, they do work with cities and states to help them develop their own disaster preparedness programs. However, is there any emphasis on including We the People in those programs like we did during the 1950s?
No. And therein lies the problem.
We the People are BY FAR your largest workforce in times of any disaster or emergency. Private citizens outnumber police, fire, and rescue by more than 1,000 to 1. The “professionals” can sweat the small stuff, everything from a house fire to an airliner crash, but they are absolutely, utterly overwhelmed when major disasters such as tornados, hurricanes, and forest fires sweep through inhabited areas.
We the People are your FIRST RESPONDERS, not police, fire, and rescue. When seconds count, We the People are there, while the second responders are minutes away. In large disasters, it’s more like hours, and even days away.
I’m not saying we don’t need police, fire, and rescue, along with local, county, state, and federal EM (emergency management) people. We absolutely do!
What I am saying is that if they’re focusing on using only paid personnel in their response force, their cutting their available resources by at least 90%.
Out of 325 million Americans, not everyone is well-suited for rescue work. In fact, most people aren’t. 24% of us are under 18, while 15.2% are 65 and older. That leaves 197,600,000 available American Adults.
Even so, if the ratio of We the People to PFR+EM is 1,000 to 1, but only 10% of We the People (19,760,000) have various types of rescue training management experience under emergency or combat conditions, then that’s still 100 to 1. But let’s say you’re wanting to ensure only the best of the best civilians augment your forces, that only 1% of We the People are capable of successfully augmenting professional Emergency Managers.
Then that select 1% of We the People STILL outnumber PFR+EM personnel by 10 to 1. That’s still 1.98 million highly skilled, well-trained augmentees available for use, and we live EVERYWHERE. We are in every town, city, county, and state in the union. I dare say there’s at least one of us in every neighborhood, or at least nearby.
Thus, PFR+EM personnel should make a concerted effort to identify and USE those augmentees during natural disasters.
But what happened during the Waldo Canyon Fire? Nothing. They evacuated everyone (sensible), but then posted guards at all entrances, keeping people out for days, and in some areas, weeks.
Not a very smart move. While I understand the concerns about looting, if you’d simply let everyone back in, we can defend ourselves, thank you very much.

Weather Disasters Caused by Bad Decisions, not Global Warming or Climate Change

Dr. Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground, wrote a very interesting article entitled, “Earth’s 29 Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters of 2015: 4th Most on Record” today.

What I found most interesting about is the the fact he failed to mention the root cause of the disasters.

Here are the disaster basics:

  1. The count was very confusing.  After reading the article several times, he’s not saying the losses total $29 Billion.  He’s saying there were 29 weather disasters in 2015 whose individual costs for each disaster exceeded $1 billion.
  2. By comparison, there were 24 weather disasters, on average, whose individual costs exceeded $1 billion.
  3. The U.S. had eleven of the billion-dollar weather disasters.  China came in second with a count of six.
  4. I see no mention that the costs were adjusted for inflation.  Ergo, the most recent “records” might not be records at all.
  5. The values include drought, earthquakes and fires.  For example, Indonesia suffered from drought and fires.  Romania suffered from drought.  South Africa suffered from drought.  Ethiopia?  Drought.  Malawi suffered from rain-induced flooding; Vanuatu from a Category 5 tropical cyclone (hurricane); Chile from flooding; Dominica from flooding; Botswana from flooding.

Weather is NOT the root cause of these problems.  We’ve always had weather.  It is both natural and normal.  The root cause of these problems is man, but NOT in the way the Global Warming a.k.a. Climate Change screamers would like you to believe.  We have ALWAYS had weather on this planet, and it has often been more severe than it’s been lately.  It’s been both significantly hotter as well as significantly colder than it is today.  It’s been both significantly more violent as well as significantly more sedate than it is today.  During the more sedate periods, species differentiate and variety flourishes.  During more violent periods of rapid change, only the hardiest species survive while the rest die off.  This, too, is both normal and natural.  In fact, it’s the very basis of evolution.  Scientists fret about Earth being on the brink of a sixth mass extinction without realizing this would be our sixth mass extinction, not our first.  The others occurred 439 mya, 364 mya, 251 mya, 199 mya, and 65 mya.

Their claim that it’s “mostly due to human actions,” however, is utterly preposterous.

In fact, the first such event, the Ordovician-Silurian extinction that occurred 439 million years ago (mya) was caused by “a drop in sea levels as glaciers formed followed by rising sea levels as glaciers melted” (Source).  During the event, Earth lost 25% of marine families and 60% of marine genera.  Tragic?  No!  It was both normal and natural.  Mankind wouldn’t start appearing until another 436 my later.

The second such event, the Late Deonian extinction, occurred approximately 364 mya, with suspected global cooling and glaciation of Gondwana (a former mass continent, long since subducted) causing the extinction of of many warm water marine species.

The third such event, the Permian-Triassic extinction, occurred 251 mya.  Although no direct evidence has been found, scientists believe it was the result of a comet or asteroid impact that killed 95% of all species.  Again, mankind was till 248 my down the road.

The fourth such event, the End Triassic extinction, between 199 and 214 mya, resulted from massive lava floods caused by the breakup of Pangea and the opening of the Atlantic Ocean.  As this occurred over 15 my, a relatively small number of marine families, genera, and vertebrates occurred.  Mankind was still 196 my distant.

The fifth such event, the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction, occurred 65 mya as either the result or aggravation of several mile-wide asteroid impacts, including the Chicxulub crater in Yucatan.  Other scientists say it was the result of gradual climate change.  Regardless, 16% of marine families, 47% of marine genera, and 18% of vertebrate families died, including the dinosaurs.

The point is that each and every one of these events occurred entirely due to NORMAL and NATURAL change and entirely without mankind in the picture.

So what have we learned?  We’ve learned that climate change is both normal and natural.  We’ve also learned that the root cause of the dollar damage involves bad choices made by man in terms of location, building design, and forestry management, and NOT because of the normal and natural weather patterns and climate here on Earth.

Let’s take a closer look at Indonesia:

The primary cause of Indonesia’s drought and fires was two-fold.  There’s been an increase in deforestation combined with managed forestry.  Historically, this leads to the suppression of many small natural fire events that weed out smaller growth thereby keeping the fuel for major fires to a minimum.  This type of “managed care” lead to the massive fires that raged through Yellowstone National Park in 1988.

As for disasters related to flooding, “never build on a flood plain.”  My father gave me that advice as I was seeking to buy my first house in 1994, but I first heard it from my grandfather in 1967, as my father was looking to buy his own first home.  Before buying my house, I went to the county’s land surveyor office and immediately crossed off three homes on my list because they were built on a flood plain.  We moved into one of the homes on my list that wasn’t on any flood plain, including the 500-year flood plain.  Just nine months later, the area experienced record rainfalls.  Basically, it rained nearly 24/7 for an entire month, flooding out all three of the homes I had crossed off my list.  In my home, however, we were high and dry.

Here’s another good piece of advice, dating back well over two thousand years:

“Everyone therefore who hears these words of mine, and does them, I will liken him to a wise man, who built his house on a rock. The rain came down, the floods came, and the winds blew, and beat on that house; and it didn’t fall, for it was founded on the rock. Everyone who hears these words of mine, and doesn’t do them will be like a foolish man, who built his house on the sand. The rain came down, the floods came, and the winds blew, and beat on that house; and it fell—and great was its fall.” – Matthew 7:24-27

The parable involves putting our trust in Jesus Christ, but relates to the common knowledge that building on rock is wise while building on sand is foolish.  The parable also mentions the rains, winds (hurricanes/cyclones), and flooding, the principle causes of most of the weather-related disasters in Dr. Jeff Master’s article.

The idea proposed by the GW/CC enthusiasts, that we somehow change the weather, is preposterous, insanely absurd.  In fact, even if we spent 100% of the damages on mitigating the effects weather change caused by mankind’s activities, it would have — at best — a 0.3% effect.

In order words, spend a million dollars and achieve a return of just three thousand dollars.  No matter how much one spent, you would only ever achieve a 0.3% (.003 factor) return on your investment.

That, ladies and gentlemen, would be the supreme height of arrogant, ignorant stupidity, a complete and utter waste of taxpayer dollars, not to mention the productivity of mankind in general.  Billions would die trying to pay for this insane scheme, yet that’s exactly what scientists would like you to believe is the best course of action, when in fact, it is the most absurd course of action on the planet with only one outcome that’s good for only one class of people, and that’s the trillions of dollars that would be spent lining the pockets of climate scientists.

Naturally, this brings us to my last word to the wise:  Follow the money.  In this case, it leads to the now-clear motive behind much of their finger-waggling.

So, instead of embarking on the ridiculously stupid, not to mention futile attempt to modify normal and natural climate change, let us instead do three things:

  1.  Never build on a flood plain.  If you do, have the common decency to build on pilings designed to withstand whatever a once in a 500 year flood will throw at you, and ensure the building is strong enough to withstand the winds and the rains.
  2. If you build out of primitive materials, consider using the environmentally-friendly hanok style of Korea, along with it’s sub-floor heating system known as ondol.  These homes are very sturdy, and have weathered the typhoon-ridden countries of N. and S. Korea for hundreds of years.  The round mound is another weather-proof design commonly found among peasant villages throughout N. and S. Korea.  Like geodesic domes, these designs can easily withstand very high cyclonic winds while providing good shelter against the cold and cooling against the summer heat.
  3. Stop putting out forest fires!  They are absolutely essential to controlling the undergrowth which, if left to grow in the absence of a major fire, produces enough fuel for catastrophic forest fires of the kind that burned in Indonesia.  At the very least, conduct regular, controlled burns to mimic what would occur in nature if left alone.  In a similar vein, stop deforesting large swaths of land by setting forest fires, the little known fact Dr. Jeff Masters failed to mention in his article.

Bottom line:  Mother Nature is not “steady-state.”  It never has been, and no matter how much we try, it never will be.  Instead, our Earth and its inhabitants have evolved to take care of life as we know it, even in the face of massive change.  Change is normal.  Change is natural.  What is neither normal nor natural is man coming along, being stupid by building on flood plains using stupid architecture incapable of standing up to seasonal hurricane winds while interrupting natural burn-out of undergrowth then whining about it all over mass media like blithering idiots.