Latest COVID-19 Stats and Commentary

Over the course of the last eleven months, I’ve found a lot of COVID-19 stats out there, but none which provides as much insight and actionable information as the following single spreadsheet. We’ll get right to it, followed by amplifying commentary.

The key question in most people’s minds is, “Just how deadly is this disease?” Let’s compare it to the Seasonal Flu, which kills 43,000 out of some 47.5 million people who get it. That’s a mortality rate of 0.091%.

Aside: Mortality rates are calculated by dividing the numbers of Fatal cases by the numbers of Resolved cases. Resolved cases include both Recovered cases and Fatal cases. This is the only correct way to calculate mortality rates as it’s the only verifiable and accurate way to answer the question: “If I contract COVID-19, what are my chances of dying?” A great many sources have been dividing fatalities by total cases, an egregious error in that it grossly under-reports the actual danger. I’ll cover this in greater detail at a later point in time.

By comparison, COVID-19’s mortality rate for the world is 3.8%. It’s mortality rate here in the U.S. is 3.9%. This comports with the mortality rate in most countries. Indeed, 3.8% is the mean for all countries.

Now, let’s compare COVID-19’s mortality rate with that of the seasonal flu:

3.9% / 0.091% = 43.0

Here in the U.S., COVID-19 is 43 times more deadly than the seasonal flu. That’s a mortality rate 4,300% higher than the mortality rate of the seasonal flu. If you’re one of those who keep saying, “It’s the flu / It’s no worse than the flu,” I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but you’re both wrong and ignorant (lacking knowledge). Internet memes are a pitiful substitute for a proper education.

Back to COVID-19: Left unchecked and allowed to progress throughout a society acting as if it didn’t exist, COVID-19 would kill roughly 1,849,000 Americans. That’s a third of the population of Colorado.

As of December 20, 2020, it’s killed 316,499 of us, only 17%, or one-sixth of the total that will die if this disease remains unchecked.

Am I getting through to you, yet? COVID-19 is actually 66.8% more deadly than the H1N1-A Spanish Flu that ravaged both the United States and the World from February 1918 through April 2020. COVID-19 remains 4,300% more deadly than the season flu.

Let’s take a look at how state mortality rates compare to one another:

To view this full screen and in a separate window, click here.

Looks like Vermont, Hawaii, Maine, Utah and New Hampshire all took the warnings seriously, and in acts of prudence (NOT a bad word!) they heeded the warnings, wore their masks, washed their hands, and likely wore some form of protective eyewear and may even have sanitized their groceries. They have the lowest infection rates of all the states.

GOOD FOR THEM!

New Jersey, Kentucky, Colorado, New York and Missouri, however, aren’t doing so well. All have either high infection rates, high mortality rates after a person has been infected, or both. Clearly, the Dakotas are ignoring all the warnings, both pegging double-digit infection rates, even though they appear to either be made of hardier stock or they have better medical treatments, as their mortality rates are below average.

BOTTOM LINE

As of Christmas 2020, the United State remains just one-sixth of the way through this pandemic. We have five-sixth of the way to go.

While vaccines can greatly speed up this process while dramatically reducing the loss of life, everyone absolutely must continue to use PPE and proper decontamination procedures until BOTH of the following milestones have been achieved:

1. More than 80% of the population has had the opportunity to receive the vaccine.
2. We’re two to three months beyond the 80% point, having given this virus enough time to die out throughout our population.

The absolutely LAST thing America needs is a bunch of political ignoramuses running around trying to one-up one another by playing, “Who’s more stupid?”

Not only are anti-maskers doing a grave disservice to the Republican party by making the rest of us look stupid, but they give everyone who supports and defends the Constitution for the United States of America a bad name.

Then there’s the issue of negligent but apparently willful homicide, depriving the right of their fellow citizens to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness…

Updated: December 22, 2020 — 4:49 pm