PIN: I began this blog on January 30, 2020, sounding the alarm LONG before most people accepted it as anything more than the flu. In fact, most people were still ridiculing others sounding the alarm. I WAS ONE OF THOSE PEOPLE, at least up to about the middle of January. The numbers themselves changed my mind. I even wrote the Mayor of New Orleans, trying to convince her to stop Mardis Gras. I’m not prescient. I simply know how to analyze the numbers.
April 4, 2020 UPDATE:
A projection shows the daily death rate of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. will climb to roughly 2,214 deaths per day by the middle of April before tapering off over the following two months.
Marc 31, 2020 UPDATE:
Vox published a Gallup Poll showing how dramatically people’s behavior has changed in response to the actual wake-up i.e. NUMBERS of people dying.
March 13, 2020 UPDATE:
March 11, 2020 UPDATE:
February 6, 2020:
Did the news media forget about this positive development from Feb 25, 2020? Or are they ignoring it in the hopes of scaring up more viewers, ratings and advertising revenue?
All I’ve heard the news media say is, “vaccine won’t be ready for a year.” According to the article, however, if human trials in April are successful, they could ramp up production very quickly, hence the comment:
That means that this vaccine method can be scaled up quickly, saving critical time when a new disease like COVID-19 emerges and starts infecting tens of thousands of people.
Again, this is NOT developed the same way flu vaccines are developed. That does indeed take a long time. By comparison:
Moderna’s vaccine against COVID-19 was developed in record time because it’s based on a relatively new genetic method that does not require growing huge amounts of virus. Instead, the vaccine is packed with mRNA, the genetic material that comes from DNA and makes proteins. Moderna loads its vaccine with mRNA that codes for the right coronavirus proteins which then get injected into the body. Immune cells in the lymph nodes can process that mRNA and start making the protein in just the right way for other immune cells to recognize and mark them for destruction.
January 30, 2020:
From Wikipedia as of February 28, 2020. I’m leaving the links and references intact for your edification:
The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. The risk of it spreading globally is very high. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 28 February 2020, more than 84,000 cases have been confirmed in over 50 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. At least 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease, surpassing that of the 2003 SARS outbreak by 9 February. More than 36,000 people have since recovered.
Just HOW deadly is this? Let me put it this way: The Spanish Flu was 39 times more deadly. The Bubonic Plague (Black Death) of the mid-1300s, about 32 times more deadly. HIV/AIDS is nearly three times more deadly. However, this is roughly thirty times more deadly than MRSA, Swine Flu (H1N1) and SARS (SARS-CoV) COMBINED.
Before I dive into my own analysis, please allow me to share a video sent to me where Dr. Peter Lin, a family physician in Toronto, Canada, is stunningly well-informed while offering incredibly sage and sound advice based on actual reality. Without further ado:
I’ve been running the numbers on the 2019–20 Wuhan coronavirus outbreak caused by the Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
With 2,900 deaths out of 84,000 confirmed cases and confirmed recovery of 36,000 individuals, things aren’t looking good. Without further analyzing the numbers, predictions are all over the map, with recovery rates ranging between 43% and 97%. Realistically speaking, however, with many of those infected still in recovery, it’s looking more and more like worldwide death rates will range between 5% and 25% while recovery rates range between 75% and 95%. If I absolutely had to pin it, I’d say, worldwide, roughly 15% of those infected will die while 85% will recover. Obviously, those who have access to excellent medical care will have significantly improved odds, with roughly 5% dying and 95% recovering.
The real question at this point in time is this: “How many of those who have been exposed become a confirmed case i.e. with symptoms and biologically testing positive?” That might be very low. It might be quite high. We cannot begin to estimate death rates without first answering that question. Furthermore, we don’t know how quick vaccines can be tested or how effective they will be.
Here’s the good news: You can DRAMATICALLY reduce the likelihood you or your children will become infected.
Read and follow the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Prevention & Treatment page from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC/P).
Never touch your face unless you have thoroughly sanitized your hands, not, it doesn’t matter how much your nose itches. Don’t do it!
If you’re in the presence of someone coughing, hacking and/or sneezing, WHY??? You should have left, already. Seriously. If they’re in that much distress and aren’t wearing a mask, get far far away from them. Leave your basket. Leave the store. They should be in far more than a mask, like an isolation ward, at least until they’ve been tested.
Wash hands often, particularly after touching anything external to your home, and immediately after returning home. Since it’s impractical to sanitize the handles on your grocery bags, just load the bags into your vehicle, close the trunk lid, and sanitize your hands. Only then do you open the driver’s door to get behind the wheel. Similarly, unload the bags by gently dumping the ingredients on your counter, THROW THE BAGS AWAY, preferably in the outside or garage trash, then wash your hands with soap and warm water. Wipe down doorknobs daily with 70% alcohol (isopropyl and ethanol work equally well).
Due to the lack of discipline most children (even teens!) have with respect to touching things, especially their faces, I suggest you leave them at home while shopping.
To further sanitize your hands, place a liter of water in a bowl. Add ONE drop of Dawn Liquid Detergent, swirl it around, then add ONE drop of household bleach. After washing your hands for 30 seconds in soap and rinsing thoroughly with water, cup a bit of the contents in the bowl as a final 20-second wash before thoroughly rinsing that off, too (both Dawn and bleach are serious irritants if left on your hands).
If you order anything online, wipe it down with 70% alcohol. If it’s clothing, wash it, first.
Dr. Rick Martinello, medical director for infection prevention at the Yale New Haven Health System, says you don’t need to go overboard. The strongest evidence so far indicates that COVID-19 is mainly spread via respiratory droplets—in other words, through the coughs and sneezes of infected individuals. There is evidence that coronaviruses can live on inanimate surfaces for up to nine days, but it’s not yet clear how likely humans are to be infected by touching these surfaces. – Source
Furthermore, this article makes it clear
CHANGE (4/4/2020): WEAR A MASK. Thus, instead of wearing a mask everywhere you go, I would carry a clean handkerchief. If someone is sneezing or coughing nearby, put that up to your face, breath through it, and leave.
Maintaining a Strong Immune System
- Avoid drugs, alcohol, sugar, processed foods, and artificial sweeteners
- Eat healthy foods: See 100 World’s Healthiest Foods
- Rest: Go to bed at least 9 hours before you need to start getting ready for work, school, or an appointment. Set your alarm for that time, but allow yourself to wake up naturally, if possible.
- Exercise: routine, consistent, moderate weights and aerobics 3x/wk. If you go to a gym, wipe down all surfaces before AND after use.
- Continue breast-feeding: Babies have immature immune systems, so passing antibodies through your breast milk gives them a real advantage!
Antibodies are special proteins the immune system produces to help protect the body against bacteria and viruses. The amount and type of antibodies passed to the baby depends on the mother’s immunity. … Breast milk also contains antibodies, which means that babies who are breastfed have passive immunity for longer. – Source
WARNING – CONTROVERSIAL: If the numbers in the states increases to any significant extent, consider pulling your children from daycare. Because of the poor hygiene habits of kids, constantly wiping their noses before and after playing with toys, daycare is the number one vector for family sickness, followed by children in school, then work, shopping, and socializing.
Let’s compare it to the H1N1 (Swine Flu) pandemic of 2009, which I had. Ten days of OMG followed by three weeks of recovery before I felt normal again. The Swine Flu infected between 11% and 21% of the 6.85 billion population of 2009, resulting in roughly 365,000 deaths, a rate of 0.03% for those infected (1 in 3,300).
The death rate for the Coronavirus has, to date, been more than 100x higher than that for the H1N1 (Swine Flu). As of this writing, 3.45% of those infected with SARS-CoV-2 have died (1 in 29), but with a recovery rate to date of only 42.86%. Again, it’s still in the outbreak phase, with 53.69% of infected patients still sick, meaning they have yet to either recover or die.
Admittedly, those who have died have largely been the poor without access to decent medical care. It’s much too early to extend the numbers, for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the fact the first COVID-19 vaccines are already being used in trials. Another reason has to do with the fact we’re still in the early, rapid-growth stages: 53.69% of those who have been infected with COVID-19 have yet to either die or recover, as most of those were infected within the last three weeks.
I predict, however, with proper preventative and medical care, the actual numbers will be much lower, between 1 million and 10 million. And that’s even if it’s allowed to spread. With proper precautions being practiced by everyone — and I do mean everyone — our planet can minimize the threat.
As an aside, disease has always been a part of the natural environment here on Earth. Just 100 years ago, the Spanish Flu killed 500 million people from 1918 through 1920, a far greater percentage of the world population than COVID-19 is likely to affect. Many people had a natural immunity, and the rest who survived probably had either partial immunity or simply healthy immune systems that allowed them to get sick, then recover.
Is it heinous or Machiavellian to say, “Let nature run it’s course – those who survive it will be better for for it?”
The loss of life, not only for those dying, but the grief and tragedy for those left behind, is far to great to ignore this threat. Take all necessary precautions. Be safe.