## The “97%” and why the IPCC, NOAA and other climate data is lacking

A friend of mine recently commented on how two years of data shows a decided cooling trend.  We must be careful to remember the difference between weather, which is what occurs on any given day, week, month, year, and even 11-year sunspot cycle, and climate, which is what occurs over the long haul.

Furthermore, statistics being what it is, one or two data points mean nothing. Furthermore, the answer to the question, “How many data points are enough?” depends both on what you’re trying to measure and the nature of the data itself.

If you know you’re measuring a straight line, two data points are sufficient to describe the entire line.

If you know you’re measuring a parabola, and you know the parabola’s orientation (axis), two points are again sufficient. If you don’t know its orientation, you’ll need three points.

If you’re conducting an exit poll at a precinct, measuring whether people are voted for candidate A or Candidate B, and no write-ins were allowed, you need to pick a Confidence Level, say, 99%, a Confidence Interval, say, +/- 3 points, and the population size, say, 35,000 people in the precinct. The answer is a sample size of 653. However, that’s not all, as you need to ensure the respondents are randomly selected throughout the voting period.  The largely liberal news organizations failed to take this into account when they launched their glowing pro-Hillary polls in the 2016 election.

When you’re talking about climate, however, the samples for each location need to include temperature, humidity, pressure, precipitation types and amounts, cloud types and cloud cover, and solar irradiance on the ground for at least 24 times each day, multiplied by every day for decades — at least thirty years worth, but preferably about 300+, then, multiply times thousands of locations around the world. You also need to measure solar irradiance in space i.e. the Sun’s output, and we’ve had access to that information only over the last 40 years. Finally, we need to correlate the irradiance with sunspot activity and discount the effect of sunspot variability, which can last as much as a century.

In all, there’s at least 16 pieces of variable information to be recorded at least hourly at each location, along with at least 12 pieces of constant information for each location.

For each location, that comes to 140,160 pieces of variable information each year, times tens of thousands of locations.

The best locations for this information are airports. According to the Airports Council International (ACI) World Airport Traffic Report, there are currently 17,678 commercial airports in the world. Most of these report their current conditions to one of several database repositories.

The major problem with the IPCC reports, however, is that they’re approach is rather simplistic. They often don’t even know what information to ask because they’re largely tied to the weather model, rather than a physics model. There are a number of relevant variables of which they either completely discount or have never even heard.

Local and surrounding terrain features, for example, significantly impact the readings. These “anomalous terrain features” can be mathematically described with via a centroid location, elongation factor, distance, and direction. Winds blowing over a mountain range 200 miles upwind during humid weather are likely to experience more cooling due to cloud formation than they are during dry weather. Similarly, weather stations located near a body of water are affected quite differently when the winds are onshore vs offshore. Even absolutely identical air masses located 500 miles distant will arrive in Kansas bearing quite different properties on a perfectly clear day throughout the entire U.S. depending on whether the air mass traveled up from low-lying Texas, down from the northern latitude Dakotas, or west over mountainous Colorado.

The same is true for ocean data. “Mean oceanic surface temperature,” while a good metric, is woefully void of the entire story, as oceans have basins and mountain ranges, too, and even slight shifts in currents can vary “ocean weather” significantly.

Then there’s the mudstream media’s “97% of climatologists agree” meme.  It’s more than a meme, however, as pro-AGP (anthropogenic climate change) forces are now creating videos demonstrating how 97% of climatologists agree…

…while ignoring the reality that their agreement originates from a single errant paper that was picked up by mudstream media itself and spread like wildfire.
New York Times bestselling author Alex Epstein, founder of the Center for Industrial Progress, reveals the origins of the “97%” figure and explains how to think more clearly about climate change in this YouTube video, below:

FYI, here’s the ear-tickeling but blitheringly idiot piece of PBS crap that started this conversation:

## Chicken Little vs the IPCC

Now that the Democrat’s have been dethroned, scientists galore are coming out of the woodwork in favor of the truth:

“It is becoming clear that not only do many scientists dispute the asserted global warming crisis, but these skeptical scientists may indeed form a scientific consensus.

“Don’t look now, but maybe a scientific consensus exists concerning global warming after all. Only 36 percent of geoscientists and engineers believe that humans are creating a global warming crisis, according to a survey reported in the peer-reviewed Organization Studies. By contrast, a strong majority of the 1,077 respondents believe that nature is the primary cause of recent global warming and/or that future global warming will not be a very serious problem.”

I hold two science degrees, and a third in business administration. I graduated summa cum laude from both graduate degrees, with a 3.94 our of 4.0 in one, and a 4.0 out of 4.0 in the other. I completed both degrees, along with two full concentrations, one in technology management, the other in project management, in just 2.67 years. I began my collegiate studies in Aerospace Engineering back in 1981.

Since 1986, I have been either a moderator or an administrator on at least one message forum (The Bible BBS, Blacksburg, VA).

I spent 20 years, from 1989 through 2009, flying B-52s and C-130s for the Air Force.

Major non-flying positions included as an instructor and the Asst Director of Academics at a well-known school at Nellis AFB. We taught 60+ Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine, and Coalition students ranging from E-2 through O-6 how to integrate joint firepower on the battlefield everysix weeks.

Between 2003 and 2005, I redesigned the Airlift Request process for the entire Korean Theater of Operations, a task that I was repeatedly told was “impossible, unless you have ten years.” I accomplished it in six months, and was duly recognized for the benefit it conferred to U.S. Forces Korea.

Since 1995, I have been a member of at least one physics, astronomy, or science forum (Bad Astronomy, Universe Today, Physics Forum, Science Forums).

Since 1998, I have been studying the IPCC reports, First through Fifth assessments (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, and 2014). Although I was “on board” with global warming from the early 1990s through 1998, while examining the IPCC’s detailed documents during the fall of 1998, I began to notice a number of discrepancies, both when compared with external data as well as internal inconsistencies. I came to a logical conclusion that whoever was behind these reports was working primarily off of rhetoric and dogma while cherry-picking their “logical” discourse to match their ideologies, rather than actually following the scientific method. Years later, I learned that John Coleman, co-founder of The Weather Channel, had arrived at the same conclusion. Excerpt:

“Through self study and correspondence courses at Penn State (all while he was working on television full-time) Coleman eventually obtained Professional membership status in the American Meteorological Society and was named AMS Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year in 1982. After ten years of attending AMS National Meetings and studying the papers published in the organization’s journal, Coleman claimed the AMS was driven by political, not scientific, agendas and dropped out the AMS.”

I conclude that what was fomenting in the AMS between 1982 and 1992 lead to the self-seeking establishment of the IPCC, along with the peddling of non-scientific global warming/climate change “doom and gloom” in exchange for some \$200 BILLION in government funding over the last couple of decades…

…even if many of them were unaware of the various cognitive biases that lead to their heading down the wrong path.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/02/13/peer-reviewed-survey-finds-majority-of-scientists-skeptical-of-global-warming-crisis/#500a927d171b

## Leading Climatologist Debunks the “Climate Change” Hype

This week in the House Natural Resources Committee, Congressman Doug Lamborn engaged in a fascinating dialogue with Mr. John Christy Professor of Atmospheric Science and State Climatologist National Space Science and Technology Center, University of Alabama. During their exchange, Professor Christy categorized the impact that a single project (such as a coal-fired power plant) would have on the climate of the planet would be, “like spitting in the ocean.” The professor also pointed out that real world atmospheric climate data collected by balloons and satellites over the last three decades has not matched up with the predictions laid out by the last three decades of climate modelling.

“We must always strive to be good stewards of our environment. However, we must not cripple our economy and potential for growth and development with hugely expensive costs based on assertions that are being disputed and questioned within the scientific community. I commend Professor Christy for his courage in speaking up on this very important issue.”

– Congressman Doug Lamborn (CO-05)

Text of Professor Christy’s Testimony

I am John R. Christy, Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science, Alabama’s State Climatologist and Director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. I have served as a Lead Author, Contributing Author and Reviewer of United Nations IPCC assessments, have been awarded NASA’s Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement, and in 2002 was elected a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society.

It is a privilege for me to offer my analysis of the impact that proposed regulations might have on the climate system. My research area might be best described as building datasets from scratch to advance our understanding of what the climate is doing and why. I have used traditional surface observations as well as measurements from balloons and satellites to document the climate story. Many of our UAH datasets are used to test hypotheses of climate variability and change.

Impact of Single (or many) Federal Projects on Climate

The basic question under consideration here is to understand whether there is a causal relationship between the carbon emissions generated by a single proposed federal project and possible climate change related to those emissions. It is obvious that the emissions generated by a single project would be vanishingly small in comparison to the current emissions of the global economy or even of the United States as a whole. Because of the minuscule nature of the relative size of its emissions, the impact of a single project on the global climate system would be imperceptible.

To demonstrate any impact at all on the climate system, we must scale up the size of the emission changes to a much larger value than that of a single project. By doing so, our tools would then be able to provide some results. Let us assume, for example, that the total emissions from the United States are reduced to zero, today, 13 May 2015. In other words as of today and going forward, there would be no industry, no cars, no utilities, no people – i.e. the United States would cease to exist as of this day. With this we shall attempt to answer the question posed by the NEPA statement which is, essentially, what is the “climate change through GHG emissions.”

[Note: There seems to be some confusion here. The NEPA statement appears to call for the calculation of the amount of climate change brought about by the emission levels proposed for each project. However, the CEQ guidance states, “the potential effects of a proposed action on climate change as indicated by its GHG emissions.” The CEQ guidance, in effect, claims that any GHG emissions in some sense relate to all of the alleged consequences of extra GHGs. Thus, the guidance apparently seeks to claim emissions are a direct proxy for negative impacts of climate change (which as shown below has not been established) while skipping any calculation of that effect from the individual projects. Then, inconceivably, the guidance does not even consider the inarguably positive consequences of increases in GHG emissions which are quantifiable as well: (1) the enhancement of the length and quality of human life through affordable energy, and (2) the invigoration of the biosphere (specifically plant material used for human food).]

Using the U.N. IPCC impact tool known as Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change or MAGICC, graduate student Rob Junod and I reduced the projected growth in total global emissions by U.S. emission contribution starting on this date and continuing on. We also used the value of the equilibrium climate sensitivity as determined from empirical techniques of 1.8 °C. After 50 years, the impact as determined by these model calculations would be only 0.05 to 0.08 °C – an amount less than that which the global temperature fluctuates from month to month. [These calculations used emission scenarios A1B-AIM and AIF-MI with U.S. emissions comprising 14 percent to 17 percent of the 2015 global emissions. There is evidence that the climate sensitivity is less than 1.8 °C, which would further lower these projections.]

Because changes in the emissions of our entire country would have such a tiny calculated impact on global climate, it is obvious that single projects, or even entire sectors of the economy would produce imperceptible impacts. In other words, there would be no evidence in the future to demonstrate that a particular climate impact was induced by the proposed regulations. Thus, the regulations will have no meaningful or useful consequence on the physical climate system – even if one believes climate models are useful tools for prediction.

How well do we understand the climate?

It is important to understand that projections of the future climate and the specific link that increasing CO2 might have on the climate are properly defined as scientific hypotheses or claims, not proof of such links. The projections being utilized for this and other policies are based on the output of climate model simulations. These models are complex computer programs which attempt to describe through mathematical equations as many factors that affect the climate as is possible and thus estimate how the climate might change in the future. The equations for many of the important processes are not exact, but represent the best approximations modelers can devise at this point.

A fundamental aspect of the scientific method is that if we say we understand a system (such as the climate system) then we should be able to predict its behavior. If we are unable to make accurate predictions, then at least some of the factors in the system are not well defined or perhaps even missing. [Note, however, that merely replicating the behavior of the system (i.e. reproducing “what” the climate does) does not guarantee that the fundamental physics are well-known. In other words, it is possible to obtain the right answer for the wrong reasons, i.e. getting the “what” of climate right but missing the “why”.]

Do we understand how greenhouse gases affect the climate, i.e. the link between emissions and climate effects? A very basic metric for climate studies is the temperature of the bulk atmospheric layer known as the troposphere, roughly from the surface to 50,000 ft altitude. This is the layer that, according to models, should warm significantly as CO2 increases. And, this CO2-caused warming should be easily detectible by now, according to models. This provides a good test of how well we understand the climate system because since 1979 we have had two independent means of monitoring this layer – satellites from above and balloons with thermometers released from the surface.

I was able to access 102 CMIP-5 rcp4.5 (representative concentration pathways) climate model simulations of the atmospheric temperatures for the tropospheric layer and generate bulk temperatures from the models for an apples-to-apples comparison with the observations from satellites and balloons. These models were developed in institutions throughout the world and used in the IPCC AR5 Scientific Assessment (2013).

The information in this figure provides clear evidence that the models have a strong tendency to over-warm the atmosphere relative to actual observations. On average the models warm the global atmosphere at a rate three times that of the real world. Using the scientific method we would conclude that the models do not accurately represent at least some of the important processes that impact the climate because they were unable to “predict” what has occurred. In other words, these models failed at the simple test of telling us “what” has already happened, and thus would not be in a position to give us a confident answer to “what” may happen in the future and “why.” As such, they would be of highly questionable value in determining policy that should depend on a very confident understanding of how the climate system works.

There is a related climate metric that also utilizes atmospheric temperature which in models has an even larger response than that of the global average shown above. This metric, then, provides a stronger test for understanding how well models perform regarding greenhouse gases specifically. In the models, the tropical atmosphere warms dramatically in response to the added greenhouse gases – more so than that of the global average atmospheric temperature.

In the tropical comparison here, the disparity between models and observations is even greater, with models on average warming this atmospheric region by a factor of four times greater than in reality. Such a result re-enforces the implication above that the models have much improvement to undergo before we may have confidence they will provide information about what the climate may do in the future or even why the climate varies as it does. For the issue at hand, estimates of how the global temperature might be affected by emission reductions from the halting of projects would be over done and not reliable. As such greenhouse gas emissions cannot be used as a proxy for alleged climate change because our capability to demonstrate how greenhouse gases influence the already-observed climate is so poor.

Alleged impacts of human-induced climate changes outlined in the CEQ Guidance

As stated in the bracketed paragraph earlier, the CEQ guidance attempts to equate any GHG emissions with all alleged impacts of these emissions, which as mentioned earlier is apparently not consistent with NEPA. In other words, CO2 is assumed to be a direct proxy for alleged climate change due to human activities. However, these claimed impacts are not even consistently backed up by observational evidence: from the CEQ, “observed to date and projected to occur in the future include more frequent and intense heat waves, more severe wildfires, degraded air quality, more heavy downpours and flooding, increased drought, greater sea-level rise, more intense storms, harm to water resources, harm to agriculture, and harm to wildlife and ecosystems.” (Section II.B pp 6- 8.)

A simple examination of several of these alleged “observed to date” changes in the climate indicates the CEQ has evidently disregarded the actual observational record. I shall offer several examples which indicate these claims are misrepresentative.

In terms of heat waves, below is the number of 100 °F days observed in the U.S. from a controlled set of weather stations. It is not only clear that hot days have not increased, but it is interesting that in the most recent years there has been a relative dearth of them.

Forest and wild fires are documented for the US. The evidence below indicates there has not been any change in frequency of wildfires. The two figures above demonstrate that fire events have not increased in frequency in the United States during the past several decades.

The claims that droughts and floods are increasing may be examined by the observational record as well.

The two figures above demonstrate that moisture conditions have not shown a tendency to have decreased (more drought) or increased (more large-scale wetness). Such information is rarely consulted when it is more convenient simply to make unsubstantiated claims that moisture extremes, i.e. droughts and floods (which have always occurred), are somehow becoming even more extreme. Over shorter periods and in certain locations, there is evidence that the heaviest precipitation events are tending to be greater. This is not a universal phenomenon and it has not been established that such changes may be due to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations as demonstrated earlier because the model projections are unable to reproduce the simplest of metrics.

It is a simple matter to find documentation of the ever-rising production of grains. One wonders about the CEQ allegation that there has been “harm to agriculture” from human-induced climate change because when viewing the total growth in production, which appears to be accelerating, one would assume no “harm” has been done during a period of rising greenhouse gases.

With the evidence in these examples above, it is obviously difficult to establish the claims about worsening conditions due to human-caused climate change, or more generally that any change could be directly linked to increasing CO2. This point also relates to the issue of climate model capability noted earlier. It is clear that climate models fall short on some very basic issues of climate variability, being unable to reproduce “what” has happened regarding global temperature, and therefore not knowing “why” any of it happened. It is therefore premature to claim that one knows the causes for changes in various exotic measures of weather, such as rainfall intensity over short periods, which are not even explicitly generated in climate model output.

In summary, the information above indicates that preventing individual projects from going forward or even shutting down entire sectors of the energy economy will have no impact on the global climate system. Further, the information above indicates that the scientific understanding (i.e. climate models) of how increasing greenhouse gases are affecting the climate is rather poor, with no quantified and established link between emissions growth and specific changes in climate or disruptive weather.

End Text of Professor Christy’s Testimony

If you want to know why the climate change hoax continues, just follow the money:

– Poor countries want money from the rich countries

– University scientists want research and grant money from the government.

– Liberal politicians want more control over our energy resources and evermore taxpayer dollars to feed the greed.

The climate change hoax is deep-seated in both ideology and money.

By the way, technically, it’s not a “climate change” hoax.  It’s an “anthropogenic global warming” hoax.  The IPCC changed “AGW” to “Climate Change” so they could hide behind the fact that climate change is real, and has been for billions of years, while still bilking the world (that’s you and I) out of trillions of dollars.